Updated: A Roundup of Predictions and Opinion Polls for the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections in India

Comments 11 April 2009

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Update: Here’s an updated summary of opinion polls and predictions for the 2009 Indian Lok Sabha elections.

The month long general elections to the 15th Lok Sabha start from April 16, and there is wide speculation on which party, or coalition, will emerge the winner, when the results are announced on May 16th.

Here is a quick roundup of the pre-election predictions and the discussion around them in the Indian blogosphere.

The India TV opinion poll predicts a tie with the Congress wining 143 seats (187 with UPA allies), and the BJP winning an identical 143 seats (189 with NDA allies). Previously, India TV has predicted that the BJP will emerge as the largest single party with 144 seats (187 seats with NDA allies), ahead of the Congress, which will win 133 seats (178 seats with UPA allies).

According to the second Star-Nielsen poll, the Congress will win 155 seats (203 with UPA allies), while the BJP will win 147 seats (191 with NDA allies) (via TOI).

Arun Nehru at the Deccan Chronicle predicts that the Congress will win 157 seats (193 with UPA allies), compared to the 132 seats for the BJP (177 with NDA allies).

The Times of India predicts that the Congress will win 154 seats (198 with UPA allies), while the BJP will win 135 seats (176 with NDA allies).

According to The Week, the Congress will win 144 seats (198 with UPA allies), while the BJP will have to settle at 140 seats (186 with NDA allies).

India Today expects the UPA to win 196-205 seats, far ahead of the 172-181 seats for the NDA.

According to Reuters, the Congress with 139 seats will form the government, beating the BJP, which will win only 129 seats.

DNA predicts that the Congress-led UPA will win 184 seats, against the 177 seats for the BJP-led NDA.

Shreekant Sambrani at Business Standard predicts that BJP will emerge as the biggest party with 137 seats (184 seats with NDA allies), ahead of the Congress, which will win 119 seats (176 seats with UPA allies, including LJP/ RJD).

According to BJP’s own survey, conducted by G V L Narasimha Rao, the BJP will win 160 seats (217 with NDA allies) compared to 135 seats for the Congress (180 with UPA allies) (via TOI).

The numbers for the UPA have come down in recent predictions as analysts aren’t counting the numbers for Lalu Prasad’s RJD, Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP or Mulayam Singh’s SP as part of the alliance anymore.

Earlier, in March, the Star-Nielsen poll had predicted that Congress will win 144 seats (257 with UPA allies, including 47 for SP/ RJP/ LJP), compared to the 137 seats for the BJP (184 with NDA allies) (via Reuters).

The CNN-IBN poll had predicted that the Congress-led UPA will win 215-235 seats (including SP/ RJP/ LJP), compared to 165-185 seats for the BJP-led NDA (via Reuters).

In 2004, the UPA had won 234 seats (with 145 seats for the Congress) and the NDA had won 184 seats (with 138 seats for the BJP).

The Outlook Blog written by Sandeep Dougal, by the way, has emerged as my single most useful source of news and opinion on the Indian Lok Sabha elections. This is a great example of the value a traditional news organization can add by linking out to others.

Several Indian bloggers are also posting their own predictions.

Vijay at OffStumped, an overtly pro-BJP blog, predicts that NDA will win 184 seats compared to 108 for UPA.

Blogger Arvind Katoch predicts that UPA will win 230-240 seats where NDA can win 180-200 seats.

Promise of Reason is also doing a series of state-wise pre-poll predictions for the Indian elections.

Rajesh Jain, who is also a part of the Friends of BJP group, has also been sharing his assessment of how the elections might turn out and believes that we will see another election in two years.

My own assessment, based on all these polls, is that the Congress will emerge as the largest party with 150-160 seats, while the BJP will win 130-140 seats. In any case, fewer parties will ally with the BJP, and it will need 175+ seats to have a stab at building a majority coalition, so we can safely assume that the Congress will be a part of the coalition government. Most observers are predicting that a Congress-led UPA-Left coalition will form the government.

My first reaction is one of relief that BJP will not return to power. My second reaction is one of fear that there will be three strong extra-constitutional power centers in the ruling coalition — Sonia Gandhi, Mayawati and the Left — that will leave Manmohan Singh with little room to push through hard decisions.

Finally, a word on my own views on the Indian political mosaic. I have, so far, refrained from explicitly talking about my political preferences, but I’m involved with Vote Report India, a non-partisan citizen-driven election monitoring platform, and felt that I needed to share my views in the spirit of full disclosure.

I believe that the Congress stands for nothing and I’m disappointed by its continued obsession with the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty.However, I still support the Congress over the BJP, because the BJP does stand for something that is worse than nothing: religious conservatism, communalism and divisiveness.

Admiring how the BJP is running its election campaign isn’t the same as supporting its Hindutva agenda, a not-so-subtle distinction many of my friends have missed in the recent past.

At the same time, I respect many politicians in both the Congress and the BJP, and believe that both of them have more or less similar views on the most important issues, especially those related to economic reform and development. I also respect many politicians in the Left parties, but believe that their misguided ideology will slow down India’s development.

That’s something I can’t say about the leaders of India’s myriad regional parties, who often stand for even more pernicious and narrow versions of divisiveness, based on state, language and caste affiliations.

So, yes, I’m disappointed by the Congress, but I’m wary of the BJP, and positively alarmed by the growing power of the regional parties. That’s not the best way to decide which party you support, but it’s better than vowing not to vote, or promoting negative voting.

Also see: My earlier posts on how political parties, civil society organizations and corporates are using digital media in the 2009 Indian Lok Sabha elections.

A shorter version of this piece is cross-posted at Vote Report India and Global Voices.

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Gaurav Mishra

Gaurav Mishra - who has written 746 posts on Gauravonomics Blog on Social Media and Social Change.

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« The Story Behind Vote Report India: Citizen-Powered Election Monitoring

The Best Online Sources for News and Analysis on the 2009 Indian Lok Sabha Elections »

dina mehta

Gaurav - I'm certainly one of those who 'mis-perceived' the distinction you talk about, and I applaud you for having put that one to rest with this post :).

All the best with Vote Report India - its very very cool!

Chakresh Mishra

Thanks for including Promise of Reason in your roundup. check out the pre-poll predictions by readers of my blog, by real people - real analysis
http://promiseofreason.com/series/pre-poll-seat...

Gaurav Mishra

@Chakresh: I love the reader prediction series you are running on your blog.

Phillip S. Masih

Dear Friend,

Today , as I curiously searching on google about the 2009 Election prediction, i happened to see your blog. As an alert citizen I have also been watching the national scene and through your blog I am giving you my predictions for the Congress Party which is heading the UPA. The party will win 155 seats on its own and 176 with its allies; it willl emerge as the single largest party and the new government will be found either Congress as its leader or as a powerful supporter.

nagarjuna

what about third front and individual states opinion poll....

Gaurav Mishra

@Nagarjuna: Well, I personally believe that the Third Front is a pre-election coalition that won't survive after the election. The ruling coalition will most likely be led by one of the two national parties: BJP or Congress.

Pavs

Hi, Though it was a good read...As much as I respect your opinion, What baffles me is a well informed person like you taking a pro congress stand. I don't think you would disagree with me if I say, Congress is as communal and Divisive as BJP. It plays religion as a card for politics. The problem with Congress is its inactive and indifference style of governing. Now indifference is not same as Tolerance..is it?? Had congress been really that concerned about minorities and other religions and religious harmony, this country would have been a lot better place. What BJP says is Nation first and religion next...that is communal for some people and congress supports them. Congress supports those people who oppose to sing Vande Mataram and It says muslims have the first right on our resources. Now please tell me which is divisive and communal politics?!?! Hope you reply to this. Thanks...It was a nice read though :)

Gaurav Mishra

@Pavs: I agree that both Congress and BJP play divisive politics and both have blood on their hands. However, I believe that Congress is divisive based on opportunism, while BJP is divisive based on principle, which is more pernicious. I also think that there isn't much to choose between BJP and Congress, but, if I'm forced to make a choice, I would choose Congress.