Predictions and Opinion Polls for the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections in India

Comments 11 May 2009

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I had earlier done a roundup of opinion polls and predictions for the 2009 Indian Lok Sabha elections.

Here’s an updated summary of opinion polls and predictions for the 2009 Indian Lok Sabha elections.

Here’s a Google Doc spreadsheet of the predictions.

It seems that the gap between Congress and BJP has come down during the last month. Before the elections pundits were predicting that Congress will emerge as the largest party with 150-160 seats, while the BJP will win 130-140 seats. Now, it seems that the gap between the two parties may be less than 10 seats, one way or the other, with both parties winning 145-155 seats.

In any case, fewer parties will ally with the BJP, and it will need 175+ seats to have a stab at building a majority coalition, so it still seems that the Congress will be a part of the coalition government. However, almost nobody can say for sure what the coalition will look like.

Both Rajeev Chandrashekhar and M. J. Akbar predict some serious post-election horse trading.

What do you think? Will Congress or BJP emerge as the largest single party? Will UPA or NDA emerge as the largest pre-poll coalition? Will the president invite the largest party or the largest pre-poll coalition to form the government? Who will be the next prime minister?

Also, if I have missed out on any predictions, please do let me know in the comments section.

Update: QuickTake has put together four great scenarios for the election results.

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manish

UPA WILL FORM THE NEXT GOVT. UNDER LEADERSHIP OF dR. mANMOHAN SINGH.UPA WILL GET AROUND 240(WITH CONGRESS AROUND 170) NDA WILL BE 115 (BJP88) THIRED FRONT 170 AND BALANCE WILL BE FOURTH FRONT.THIS WILL BE WORST PERFORMANCE OF BJP

Dr. Anil Khari, M.D.

Keeping in view the above openion poll and the post poll scenario it seems to be a neck to neck fight between Congress and BJP. Finally Congress wil have an edge of nearly 10 - 15 seats, will emerge as the single largest party and UPA will form the next Goverment, in the leadership of Mr. Rahul Gandhi, as to me it seems that Mr. Manmohan Singh will refuse to accept the PM post on health ground, and finally Congress party will elect him as new leader and surely the new young energetic Prime Minister of India.

I repeat that Mr. Rahul Gandhi will be the next Prime Minister, as Mr. Manmohan Singh will step down on health ground soon or later.

DR. ANIL KHARI, M.D.

As I said earlier in my previous comment. that its neck to neck fight between Congress and BJP. Consolidating most of the openion polls and general views, you all will agree with me it seems Congres will have an edge of at least 10 - 15 seats to emerge as the single largest party and obeviously eabling UPA in a position to form the next Goverment. Upto here its OK, now i have a strong feeling that Mr. Manmohan Singh may not accept the Prime Ministrial post on health ground and we all know its a truth also that his health indeed is poor. He or some other Congress/UPA leader may propose the name of Mr. Rahul Gandi for Prime minister post, that is unanomniously supported by all UPA leaders.

I have this very, very strong feeling that Mr. Rahul Gandhi will be the next Prime Minister, and finally nearly after two decades we could see an another young, energetic Prime minister, like his dad Mr. Rajiv Gandhi. Finally we could get the rid from these 70 - 80 yrs plus aspirants for PM post. They can not move them selves, how can they moove our India, yes their services may be utilized as advisors in respective fields, but certainly not as Prime minister. We already have seen many of these 70 - 80 plus years Prime Ministers and aspirants for this post. We don't want to see a prime minister with wheel chairs.

Vikash Chandra Naithani

BJP will emerge as a single largest party and NDA will form the next government. Days have gone for UPA and you saw their true colour before elections. Under the prime ministership of Shri L.K. Advani india will grow and become super power of the world. All terorists will be wiped out from India.

kmcentellas (kmcentellas)

@kerim Also, Gaurav via globalvoices India has posted some predictions: http://tinyurl.com/p5vq27 Perhaps biased, but posts data/methods