Tagged: Predictions RSS

  • Gaurav Mishra 11:31 pm on December 24, 2009 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , Junta42, , Micro-Content, Predictions, , ,   

    2010 Social Media Predictions: Online Brand Communities Will Come of Age 

    Welcome to Gauravonomics Blog! Subscribe to my feed now and you'll never miss a single post!

    I was recently quoted in two compilations of social media predictions for 2010, by TrendsSpotting and Junta42, along with social media influencers like Pete Cashmore, David Armano, Chris Brogan, Peter Kim, John Batelle, Drew McLellan, Jason Falls, Charlene Li, Robert Scoble and Paul Gillin.

    I think the big social media trend in 2010 will be that online brand communities will come of age.

    Brand marketers will create compelling micro-content to seed these communities, then run contests to invite consumers to interpret their brand, create their own content.

    I also see brand marketers investing in communities that are built around a bigger social object: a lifestyle, cause or passion.

    Here is the TrendsSpotting 2010 Social Media Predictions –

    Cross-posted at 2020 Social: Because Business is Social.

     

  • Gaurav Mishra 7:14 pm on May 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Predictions, , , , ,   

    Predictions and Opinion Polls for the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections in India 

    I had earlier done a roundup of opinion polls and predictions for the 2009 Indian Lok Sabha elections.

    Here’s an updated summary of opinion polls and predictions for the 2009 Indian Lok Sabha elections.

    Predictions and Opinion Polls for the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections in India

    Here’s a Google Doc spreadsheet of the predictions.

    Here are the sources for the predictions: NDTV (After Phase 3), NDTV (After Phase 2), NDTV (Before Elections), DNA (After Phase 3), DNA (After Phase 2), DNA (After Phase 1), DNA (Before Elections), Arun Nehru (After Phase 4), Arun Nehru (After Phase 3), Arun Nehru (After Phase 2), Arun Nehru (After Phase 1), Arun Nehru (Before Elections), TOI (After Phase 3), TOI (Before Elections), India TV (Before Elections), Star-Nielsen (Before Elections), The Week (Before Elections), India Today (Before Elections), Reuters (Before Elections), Business Standard (Before Elections), BJP (Before Elections).

    It seems that the gap between Congress and BJP has come down during the last month. Before the elections pundits were predicting that Congress will emerge as the largest party with 150-160 seats, while the BJP will win 130-140 seats. Now, it seems that the gap between the two parties may be less than 10 seats, one way or the other, with both parties winning 145-155 seats.

    In any case, fewer parties will ally with the BJP, and it will need 175+ seats to have a stab at building a majority coalition, so it still seems that the Congress will be a part of the coalition government. However, almost nobody can say for sure what the coalition will look like.

    Both Rajeev Chandrashekhar and M. J. Akbar predict some serious post-election horse trading.

    What do you think? Will Congress or BJP emerge as the largest single party? Will UPA or NDA emerge as the largest pre-poll coalition? Will the president invite the largest party or the largest pre-poll coalition to form the government? Who will be the next prime minister?

    Also, if I have missed out on any predictions, please do let me know in the comments section.

    Update: QuickTake has put together four great scenarios for the election results.

     

    • manish 2:46 am on May 12, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      UPA WILL FORM THE NEXT GOVT. UNDER LEADERSHIP OF dR. mANMOHAN SINGH.UPA WILL GET AROUND 240(WITH CONGRESS AROUND 170) NDA WILL BE 115 (BJP88) THIRED FRONT 170 AND BALANCE WILL BE FOURTH FRONT.THIS WILL BE WORST PERFORMANCE OF BJP

    • Dr. Anil Khari, M.D. 2:44 pm on May 12, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Keeping in view the above openion poll and the post poll scenario it seems to be a neck to neck fight between Congress and BJP. Finally Congress wil have an edge of nearly 10 – 15 seats, will emerge as the single largest party and UPA will form the next Goverment, in the leadership of Mr. Rahul Gandhi, as to me it seems that Mr. Manmohan Singh will refuse to accept the PM post on health ground, and finally Congress party will elect him as new leader and surely the new young energetic Prime Minister of India.

      I repeat that Mr. Rahul Gandhi will be the next Prime Minister, as Mr. Manmohan Singh will step down on health ground soon or later.

    • DR. ANIL KHARI, M.D. 3:14 pm on May 12, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      As I said earlier in my previous comment. that its neck to neck fight between Congress and BJP. Consolidating most of the openion polls and general views, you all will agree with me it seems Congres will have an edge of at least 10 – 15 seats to emerge as the single largest party and obeviously eabling UPA in a position to form the next Goverment. Upto here its OK, now i have a strong feeling that Mr. Manmohan Singh may not accept the Prime Ministrial post on health ground and we all know its a truth also that his health indeed is poor. He or some other Congress/UPA leader may propose the name of Mr. Rahul Gandi for Prime minister post, that is unanomniously supported by all UPA leaders.

      I have this very, very strong feeling that Mr. Rahul Gandhi will be the next Prime Minister, and finally nearly after two decades we could see an another young, energetic Prime minister, like his dad Mr. Rajiv Gandhi. Finally we could get the rid from these 70 – 80 yrs plus aspirants for PM post. They can not move them selves, how can they moove our India, yes their services may be utilized as advisors in respective fields, but certainly not as Prime minister. We already have seen many of these 70 – 80 plus years Prime Ministers and aspirants for this post. We don’t want to see a prime minister with wheel chairs.

    • Vikash Chandra Naithani 2:34 am on May 14, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      BJP will emerge as a single largest party and NDA will form the next government. Days have gone for UPA and you saw their true colour before elections. Under the prime ministership of Shri L.K. Advani india will grow and become super power of the world. All terorists will be wiped out from India.

  • Gaurav Mishra 4:32 am on April 19, 2009 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: AllNews, , , , , , IndiaTalks.org, , , Predictions, ,   

    Introducing IndiaTalks.org: What is India Talking About? 

    IndiaTalks.org Logo

    A few months back, I had put up a test social voting site at IndiaTalks.org, using Drupal and Drigg. The idea was to use IndiaTalks.org to channelize the energy of India’s youth to find constructive solutions to India’s many problems. Users could vote or comment on ideas submitted by others or submit their own ideas. The most popular ideas were to be highlighted on the front page.

    I still think that a social voting site for social change is a great idea, and someone should have a serious go at it. However, I had a dozen things in the air, as always, and I didn’t find anyone who would run with the idea, so the project never went beyond the test site stage.

    IndiaTalks.org: Vote Report India Dashboard

    Today, I spent a few hours in the afternoon hacking together an Indian Election Dashboard for Vote Report India, and decided that I had finally figured out what to do with IndiaTalks.org.

    My hope is that IndiaTalks.org will become everyone’s default first stop to track news and opinion about important events happening in India.

    The Indian Election Dashboard ties in nicely with the writing and advocacy (Vote Report India) work I’m doing for the Lok Sabha elections.

    In the near future, you can expect more such dashboards for important events in India that need to be tracked compulsively (and, no, I don’t consider IPL an important event). The compulsive tracking will happen not only on the dashboard, but also on the many blogs I’m now writing at (see the sidebar for a selection).

    IndiaTalks.org is inspired by Popurls and Alltop and built entirely on Wordpress using the wonderful OneNews theme.

    BlogAdda, Dance With Shadows and OneVote.in also had the same (good) idea and beat me to the implementation, but I think there’s room for more than one such platform in India.

    I was telling someone yesterday that one way to ensure that your predictions come true is to do yourself what you predicted others would do. I’m really happy that I have been able to play a small part in making my prediction about the 2009 elections being India’s first digital election come true.

     

  • Gaurav Mishra 11:14 pm on April 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Predictions, , , ,   

    Updated: A Roundup of Predictions and Opinion Polls for the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections in India 

    Update: Here’s an updated summary of opinion polls and predictions for the 2009 Indian Lok Sabha elections.

    The month long general elections to the 15th Lok Sabha start from April 16, and there is wide speculation on which party, or coalition, will emerge the winner, when the results are announced on May 16th.

    Here is a quick roundup of the pre-election predictions and the discussion around them in the Indian blogosphere.

    The India TV opinion poll predicts a tie with the Congress wining 143 seats (187 with UPA allies), and the BJP winning an identical 143 seats (189 with NDA allies). Previously, India TV has predicted that the BJP will emerge as the largest single party with 144 seats (187 seats with NDA allies), ahead of the Congress, which will win 133 seats (178 seats with UPA allies).

    According to the second Star-Nielsen poll, the Congress will win 155 seats (203 with UPA allies), while the BJP will win 147 seats (191 with NDA allies) (via TOI).

    Arun Nehru at the Deccan Chronicle predicts that the Congress will win 157 seats (193 with UPA allies), compared to the 132 seats for the BJP (177 with NDA allies).

    The Times of India predicts that the Congress will win 154 seats (198 with UPA allies), while the BJP will win 135 seats (176 with NDA allies).

    According to The Week, the Congress will win 144 seats (198 with UPA allies), while the BJP will have to settle at 140 seats (186 with NDA allies).

    India Today expects the UPA to win 196-205 seats, far ahead of the 172-181 seats for the NDA.

    According to Reuters, the Congress with 139 seats will form the government, beating the BJP, which will win only 129 seats.

    DNA predicts that the Congress-led UPA will win 184 seats, against the 177 seats for the BJP-led NDA.

    Shreekant Sambrani at Business Standard predicts that BJP will emerge as the biggest party with 137 seats (184 seats with NDA allies), ahead of the Congress, which will win 119 seats (176 seats with UPA allies, including LJP/ RJD).

    According to BJP’s own survey, conducted by G V L Narasimha Rao, the BJP will win 160 seats (217 with NDA allies) compared to 135 seats for the Congress (180 with UPA allies) (via TOI).

    The numbers for the UPA have come down in recent predictions as analysts aren’t counting the numbers for Lalu Prasad’s RJD, Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP or Mulayam Singh’s SP as part of the alliance anymore.

    Earlier, in March, the Star-Nielsen poll had predicted that Congress will win 144 seats (257 with UPA allies, including 47 for SP/ RJP/ LJP), compared to the 137 seats for the BJP (184 with NDA allies) (via Reuters).

    The CNN-IBN poll had predicted that the Congress-led UPA will win 215-235 seats (including SP/ RJP/ LJP), compared to 165-185 seats for the BJP-led NDA (via Reuters).

    In 2004, the UPA had won 234 seats (with 145 seats for the Congress) and the NDA had won 184 seats (with 138 seats for the BJP).

    The Outlook Blog written by Sandeep Dougal, by the way, has emerged as my single most useful source of news and opinion on the Indian Lok Sabha elections. This is a great example of the value a traditional news organization can add by linking out to others.

    Several Indian bloggers are also posting their own predictions.

    Vijay at OffStumped, an overtly pro-BJP blog, predicts that NDA will win 184 seats compared to 108 for UPA.

    Blogger Arvind Katoch predicts that UPA will win 230-240 seats where NDA can win 180-200 seats.

    Promise of Reason is also doing a series of state-wise pre-poll predictions for the Indian elections.

    Rajesh Jain, who is also a part of the Friends of BJP group, has also been sharing his assessment of how the elections might turn out and believes that we will see another election in two years.

    My own assessment, based on all these polls, is that the Congress will emerge as the largest party with 150-160 seats, while the BJP will win 130-140 seats. In any case, fewer parties will ally with the BJP, and it will need 175+ seats to have a stab at building a majority coalition, so we can safely assume that the Congress will be a part of the coalition government. Most observers are predicting that a Congress-led UPA-Left coalition will form the government.

    My first reaction is one of relief that BJP will not return to power. My second reaction is one of fear that there will be three strong extra-constitutional power centers in the ruling coalition — Sonia Gandhi, Mayawati and the Left — that will leave Manmohan Singh with little room to push through hard decisions.

    Finally, a word on my own views on the Indian political mosaic. I have, so far, refrained from explicitly talking about my political preferences, but I’m involved with Vote Report India, a non-partisan citizen-driven election monitoring platform, and felt that I needed to share my views in the spirit of full disclosure.

    I believe that the Congress stands for nothing and I’m disappointed by its continued obsession with the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty.However, I still support the Congress over the BJP, because the BJP does stand for something that is worse than nothing: religious conservatism, communalism and divisiveness.

    Admiring how the BJP is running its election campaign isn’t the same as supporting its Hindutva agenda, a not-so-subtle distinction many of my friends have missed in the recent past.

    At the same time, I respect many politicians in both the Congress and the BJP, and believe that both of them have more or less similar views on the most important issues, especially those related to economic reform and development. I also respect many politicians in the Left parties, but believe that their misguided ideology will slow down India’s development.

    That’s something I can’t say about the leaders of India’s myriad regional parties, who often stand for even more pernicious and narrow versions of divisiveness, based on state, language and caste affiliations.

    So, yes, I’m disappointed by the Congress, but I’m wary of the BJP, and positively alarmed by the growing power of the regional parties. That’s not the best way to decide which party you support, but it’s better than vowing not to vote, or promoting negative voting.

    Also see: My earlier posts on how political parties, civil society organizations and corporates are using digital media in the 2009 Indian Lok Sabha elections.

    A shorter version of this piece is cross-posted at Vote Report India and Global Voices.

     

    • dina mehta 9:03 am on April 12, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Gaurav – I’m certainly one of those who ‘mis-perceived’ the distinction you talk about, and I applaud you for having put that one to rest with this post :) .

      All the best with Vote Report India – its very very cool!

    • Chakresh Mishra 10:07 am on April 13, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Thanks for including Promise of Reason in your roundup. check out the pre-poll predictions by readers of my blog, by real people – real analysis
      http://promiseofreason.com/series/pre-poll-seatwise-predictions-by-promise-of-reason-readers/

      • Gauravonomics 9:07 am on April 30, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        @Chakresh: I love the reader prediction series you are running on your blog.

    • Phillip S. Masih 5:38 am on April 15, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Dear Friend,

      Today , as I curiously searching on google about the 2009 Election prediction, i happened to see your blog. As an alert citizen I have also been watching the national scene and through your blog I am giving you my predictions for the Congress Party which is heading the UPA. The party will win 155 seats on its own and 176 with its allies; it willl emerge as the single largest party and the new government will be found either Congress as its leader or as a powerful supporter.

    • nagarjuna 10:30 am on April 15, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      what about third front and individual states opinion poll….

      • Gauravonomics 9:10 am on April 30, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        @Nagarjuna: Well, I personally believe that the Third Front is a pre-election coalition that won't survive after the election. The ruling coalition will most likely be led by one of the two national parties: BJP or Congress.

    • Pavs 9:11 am on April 25, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Hi, Though it was a good read…As much as I respect your opinion, What baffles me is a well informed person like you taking a pro congress stand. I don’t think you would disagree with me if I say, Congress is as communal and Divisive as BJP. It plays religion as a card for politics. The problem with Congress is its inactive and indifference style of governing. Now indifference is not same as Tolerance..is it?? Had congress been really that concerned about minorities and other religions and religious harmony, this country would have been a lot better place. What BJP says is Nation first and religion next…that is communal for some people and congress supports them. Congress supports those people who oppose to sing Vande Mataram and It says muslims have the first right on our resources. Now please tell me which is divisive and communal politics?!?! Hope you reply to this. Thanks…It was a nice read though :)

      • Gauravonomics 9:14 am on April 30, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        @Pavs: I agree that both Congress and BJP play divisive politics and both have blood on their hands. However, I believe that Congress is divisive based on opportunism, while BJP is divisive based on principle, which is more pernicious. I also think that there isn't much to choose between BJP and Congress, but, if I'm forced to make a choice, I would choose Congress.

    • Gauravonomics 9:02 am on April 30, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      [polldaddy 1581362 http://answers.polldaddy.com/poll/1581362/ polldaddy]

    • Gauravonomics 9:05 am on April 30, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      @Dina: I'm glad this misunderstanding is cleared up. I should have done this 'full disclosure' thing earlier.

    • Gauravonomics 9:08 am on April 30, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      @Phillip: As of now, it does seem likely that Congress will form the government, but we can't really be sure, because of the coalition considerations.

    • H S DHILLON 9:24 am on May 14, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Phases Seats INC BJP

      1 124 37 35

      2 141 62 26

      3 107 20 32

      4 85 62 19

      5 86 31 20

      PARTY wise Position

      INC = 212 , BJP = 132 , CPM = 30 , CPI = 12 , SP = 17 , BSP = 16 ;

      AIADMK = 16 , SHIVSENA = 16 , BJD = 11 , RJD = 13 , AITC= 08 ;

      TRS = 13 , TDP = 09 , AGP = 07 , PMK = 05 , SAD(B) = 04 ;

      MDMK = 03 , ARUNACHAL CONG. = 02 , JD(S) = 02 ;

      NC = 02 , PDP = 01 , MUL = 02 , RSP = 01 , INLD = 01 ;

      SDF = 01 , AIFB = 04 , NCP = 00 , JD (U ) = 00 ,

  • Gaurav Mishra 8:48 pm on December 19, 2008 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , Andy Sernovitz, Ann Handley, Ben McConnell, , , , , Greg Verdino, Jason Falls, , Joseph Jaffe, , , Predictions, , Scott Monty, , Todd Defren   

    Social Media Predictions for 2009 from Fourteen Thought Leaders 

    Peter Kim has compiled a great e-book of social media predictions for 2009 with inputs from fourteen social media thought leaders: David Armano, Rohit Bhargava, Pete Brackshaw, Chris Brogan, Todd Defren, Jason Falls, Joseph Jaffe, Charlene Li, Scott Monty, Ann Handley, Jeremiah Owyang, Ben McConnell, Andy Sernovitz and Greg Verdino.

    Here are the top five themes that emerge from these predictions –

    1. Corporates will learn how to use social media for customer service.
    2. Facebook Connect and Google Friend Connect will lead to a more social web and lay down the foundation for social shopping.
    3. Social media users will trim their profiles and networks and even opt for exclusive social networks.
    4. Location aware mobile social networks will become established and brands will finally crack the mobile marketing code.
    5. In spite of disappointment with the Obama government 2.0 initiatives, we will see an increase in social media activism and philanthropy.

    Here are my own top seven social media predictions for India for 2009.

     

  • Gaurav Mishra 4:11 pm on December 17, 2008 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , , , , , , , mVAS, Predictions,   

    Rajesh Jain: Predictions for Indian Mobile Industry in 2009 

    Rajesh Jain predicts ten key trends for the mobile industry in India in 2009 –

    1. Subscriber growth in India will continue, driven by rural expansion, entry of newer operators, 3G and cheaper handsets.
    2. Incumbent operators will face challenges (and opportunities) on four fronts: new operators, mobile number portability, 3G and MVNOs.
    3. Focus on Value-added Services and Data will increase in saturated, urban markets.
    4. Mobile VAS operators which build direct-to-consumer relationships will start emerging.
    5. Flat-rate Data Plans will accelerate the use of the Mobile Internet, Social Media and Rich Media.
    6. Operators and/or handset players will launch AppStores to drive usage, innovation and revenues.
    7. Mobile Payments and Commerce will come into vogue for microtransactions.
    8. Companies will create multi-faceted mobile presence to deepen customer relationships and drive permission-based interaction and engagement.
    9. The Mobile will emerge as the next advertising and marketing medium – and be seen as capable of not just mass reach but also allow a high degree of targeting.
    10. The 2009 general elections will be an inflection point in the usage of mobiles in many different ways.

    My thoughts: 1, 2, 3, 5 and 9 will happen; 4, 6 and 8 may or may not happen, but it will be nice if they do; 7 is unlikely to happen, given the current mobile banking regulations in India; and 10 will be the real game changer for mobile in India, like the 2008 election has been for social media in the US.

     

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